Posted by: portersprospectreport | August 19, 2008

8/18 Low A Minor League Report

Time is ticking and the minor league baseball season is coming to a close.  Here are some nice performances from the South Atlantic and Midwest Leagues!

Freddie Freeman

  • 2-3 2R BB—.325 18 HR 94 RBI 151 H 68 R (How good will he get?)

 

Cody Johnson

  • 2-4 HR(23) 4 RBI 3B 2R —.270 3 HR 13 RBI last 10 (Adam Dunn comps seem fair)

 

Eric Fryer

  • 2-5 2B RBI R—.419 2 HR 5 RBI 12 R 18 H last 10 games (BrewCrew stocked at Catcher)

 

Caleb Gindl

  • 2-5 RBI 2R—.297 9 HR 70 RBI 12 SB 36 2B (133 K’s too much for his moderate power)

 

David Mailman

  • 4-4 (all singles)—.429 2 HR 8 RBI 18 H last 10 games

 

Oscar Tejeda

  • 2-4 2B 3B R—.244 2 HR 29 RBI 9 SB in 84 games (he’ll get better)

 

Travis D’Arnaud

  • 2-4 HR(5) RBI 2R BB—.412 HR 2 RBI 5R in 4 games at Lakewood (higher ceiling than Marson)

 

Angel Villalona

  • 3-4 2 RBI 2B—Just turned 18 (.254 14 HR 56 RBI)

 

Tyler Henson

  • 1-4 HR(10) 4 RBI 2R—.269 10 HR 57 RBI 19 SB

 

Zach Britton

  • 6 IP H 2ER 5BB 7K (W)—11-6 3.06 ERA 99K/136IP (3.06 GO/FO)

 

Mauricio Robles

  • 7 IP 4H Er BB 3K (L)—4-3 2.50 ERA 69K/84IP .167 BAA (watch him)

 

Andrew Lambo

  • 2-4 2B RBI—.294 15 HR 77 RBI 33 2B

 

Neftali Soto

  • 2-4 2B 2 RBI—.338 8 HR 37 RBI .918 OPS 23 2B (in 55 games at two levels)

 

Devin Mesoraco

  • 1-4 HR(9) RBI—.269 9 HR 40 RBI in 74 games

 

Justin Smoak

  • 1-3 2B BB—Long awaited minor league debut for Rangers top pick

 

Blake Beaven

  • 6 IP 3 H ER 2BB 5K—9-6 2.50 ERA 66K/112IP (not dominant, but solid)

 

Jovan Rosa

  • 2-4 2R 2 RBI BB 2B—.288 7 HR 77 RBI 36 2B (119K/118G)

 

Danny Duffy

  • 5 IP 2H BB 7K (W)—5-1 1.14 ERA 55K/47IP last 10 games (read more below)

 

BUY/SELL Analysis

One of KC's sun-shiny prospects

One of KC's bright stars

Danny Duffy has done nothing but dominated since his debut with the Arizona League Royals club in late 2007.  In that stint, the former 3rd rounder went 2-3 1.45 ERA and 63 K’s in just 37 innings.  This season has rendered much of the same results for Duffy as he has compiled an 8-4 record with 102 K’s in just 82 innings.  Duffy’s fastball ranges from 91-94 MPH, though it is thought to have more life as he matures physically.  He has the makings of a plus curveball and solid slider as well.  One key to Duffy’s success is his ability to hide the ball during his delivery.  Command has been an issue for him in the past and his lack of groundball outs (.55/FO) is a concern as he faces more advanced hitters.  Duffy’s 1st year cards can be found in the 2008 Bowman and Chrome Prospects set and he may have autos in the upcoming Bowman Sterling and Bowman Heritage sets.  His Bowman Chrome cards sell for 75 cents to $1.00 each and refractors (#’ed to 599) can be had for $4-5 each.

Market Analysis: Pitchers, especially young ones, are dicey animals to prospect, as their futures are difficult to predict.  Duffy has been dominant since the get-go, but one has to wonder how much of that is due to being able to exploit young hitters with a deceptive delivery a la Tyler Robertson.  My feel for him is that his numbers will slide as he advances.  This is not to say that he doesn’t have a major league future.  HIs fastball and curve are a nice combination that should set himself into a 3rd or 4th spot in KC’s rotation within the next 3-4 years.  If you can snag his chromes for 75 cents he is might be a decent buy, but I would wait until AA to see if he is able to replicate his sterling numbers.

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